25 November 2007
‘Mina’ lingers at sea, veers north to Aurora, Quezon
By Alcuin Papa, TJ Burgonio, Ephraim Aguilar and Jaymee Gamil
WHAT WAS FEARED TO BE “SUPERTYPHOON MINA” changed course early yesterday and veered toward the provinces of Aurora and Quezon, appearing to have spared the Bicol region.
At noon, around 96,000 evacuees from coastal villages and flood-prone areas in Albay province were given the go-signal to return to their homes.
With the 11 a.m. weather bulletin showing little change in Mina’s course, the Albay Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council issued an advisory to local government units and disaster coordinating councils telling them to send the evacuees home.
The credibility of Pagasa’s forecasts was once again questioned after it reported a change in the typhoon’s track.
At a media briefing yesterday morning at the Office of Civil Defense in Camp Gen. Simeon Ola, Albay Gov. Joey Salceda expressed his continued faith in the weather bureau.
But he said he was strongly recommending the upgrade of Pagasa’s forecasting equipment. (See “What went wrong” on Page A6.)
Mina (international name: Mitag), still packing maximum winds of 175 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 210 kph, changed track and swirled from west to northwest at around 5 a.m., heading straight for northern Luzon.
It was forecast to make landfall between Aurora and Isabela tonight. Based on its earlier track, it was expected to hit Catanduanes last night.
“The change in track was an offshoot of its interaction with Typhoon ‘Lando.’ Since Lando exited in the west, Mina tended to move northwest,” Pagasa weather forecaster Christopher Perez said in a phone interview.
Perez said Mina had “swirled into a weak stirring movement.”
“That’s why it was almost stationary for the past 12 hours,” he said.
This morning, the typhoon is forecast to be 210 km southeast of Casiguran, Aurora.
In its 5 p.m. bulletin yesterday, the weather bureau Pagasa said Mina remained almost stationary over the Philippine Sea, some 180 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes.
Signal No. 3 remained in effect over Catanduanes and Camarines Norte.
Camarines Sur, Albay, Quezon, Quirino, Aurora and Isabela were placed under Signal No. 2, while Sorsogon, Romblon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Kalinga, Mountain Province and Cagayan remained under Signal No. 1.
But Mina is still expected to bring stormy weather to the Bicol region, Perez said.
“Within the next three days, the eastern parts of the Visayas and Luzon should expect moderate to heavy rains, with gusty winds in Bicol and northern Samar,” he said.
In Legazpi City, Cedric Daep, executive officer of the Albay Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council (PDCC), said around 70,000 persons who were evacuated from lahar zones around Mayon Volcano still had to stay in government-run shelters until further notice.
Even Anthony Golez, spokesperson of the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) and deputy administrator of the Office of Civil Defense, said “the worst was not yet over” for Bicol.
“Let’s wait for the typhoon to leave the Philippine area of responsibility,” he said in a news conference at Camp Aguinaldo.
Golez also said President Macapagal-Arroyo had ordered the “preemptive evacuation” of tens of thousands of residents of coastal and mountainous areas in Aurora and Quezon.
Perez said that “by Sunday, we should expect stormy weather over northern Luzon, and moderate rain in the Bicol region.”
“On Monday, when the typhoon is already off the coast of Ilocos Sur, it will be stormy in the Ilocos region, with light to moderate rains in other parts of Luzon,” he said.
Metro Manila will be cloudy, with rain showers and occasional gusty winds.
New evacuations
Close to 100,000 people are set to be evacuated from coastal areas and riverbanks in Aurora and Isabela.
OCD administrator Glenn Rabonza told reporters yesterday that based on information from local officials, 54,000 people will be evacuated in Isabela and another 40,000 in Aurora.
Isabela Gov. Grace Padaca, who took a call from Ms Arroyo during a meeting of the NDCC yesterday afternoon, said most of the evacuees were from the coastal areas of Palanan and Dinapigue towns.
Rabonza said preparations for Mina’s coming were “very good” despite its change of course. He said military units and assets in areas likely to be affected by the typhoon’s new path had been mobilized.
Mina has displaced more than 1,000 families in three provinces in the Visayas.
Reports reaching the regional office of the Department of Social Welfare and Development in Eastern Visayas revealed that the displaced families, representing 5,615 persons, came from various towns in Northern Samar, Eastern Samar and Biliran provinces.
At-risk residents
According to NDCC spokesperson Golez, more than 200,000 evacuees in Bicol will have to remain in evacuation centers.
“The President has instructed the NDCC to take precautionary and preventive measures. Provincial governors have been alerted, and all contingency plans are in place,” Golez said.
He said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr., the NDCC chair, had relayed Ms Arroyo’s instruction to regional disaster officials in the Ilocos, Cordillera, Cagayan Valley, and Central and Southern Luzon, as well as the Armed Forces.
Golez said the new round of evacuations would start with residents of coastal areas at risk from storm surges, and people living along riverbanks and on mountain slopes threatened by floods and landslides.
“The evacuation is taking place as of the moment… We are looking at around tens of thousands [of residents],” he said, adding that government agencies as well as the AFP Northern Luzon Command had been mobilized.
Pagasa director Prisco Nilo said the weather bureau had prepared two scenarios for Mina—one, that it would slam into the Bicol region, and the other, that it would head for Aurora and Quezon. (See Box.)
“Now, Pagasa has informed us that the storm would follow the second scenario,” Golez said.
2 weather systems
Nilo said a weakening high-pressure area northwest of the country near Hong Kong, and Lando, which left the country last week, was pulling Mina north, while another high-pressure area trailing Mina over the Pacific Ocean was also pushing Mina northward into its new course.
The change of course was detected at around 4 a.m. yesterday, Nilo said.
“[The two weather systems] modified the environmental systems surrounding the typhoon, changing its movement,” he said.
According to Nilo, Mina will gather strength as it approaches land and weaken when it hits Aurora and Isabela tonight.
After making landfall, Mina is likely to cut through the provinces of Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Benguet and Ilocos Sur, he said.
The storm is likely to exit Ilocos Sur by noon tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Magat Dam in Isabela and Angat Dam in Bulacan are continuing to release water to prevent overflow.
Binga and Ambuklao Dams in Benguet have likewise released water into San Roque Dam in Pangasinan.
AFP’s focus
The AFP spokesperson, Lt. Col. Bartolome Bacarro, also announced that the military leadership had declared a suspension of military offensive operations (Somo) effective at noon yesterday against communist rebels in the entire Luzon, including the Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan) area.
Bacarro said the Somo was declared “to support the government’s disaster preparedness, to proactively mitigate and respond to anticipated destruction to be brought about by Mina and to allow the AFP to focus on its disaster-response role in the areas affected by the typhoon.”
Decreasing pressure
In Legazpi City, Lilian Guillermo, weather specialist of the Pagasa-Legazpi station, said the decreasing pressure in northern Luzon was the main factor that triggered Mina to change course.
Guillermo said that if Mina did not change course the whole of yesterday and maintained its 11-kph speed, the closest possible distance it would have from north of Legazpi would be almost 200 km this morning.
She said Mina’s radius was around 350 km, so it could still bring rainfall and winds to Albay.
On Friday, Mina was moving westward and was expected to hit the Bicol region at dawn yesterday.
Albay residents were expecting to feel Mina’s impact early yesterday, but there were only isolated rains and moderately strong winds.
Apology
Salceda apologized to local families and businessmen for the short-term disruption of their livelihood, but said it was the price to pay for a “zero casualty” target.
He said the preemptive evacuation had already cost at least P19 million.
A total of P5.4 million was also released by the Albay provincial government to the provincial health office for the emergency purchase of medicines.
“The current supply of food packs for 34,000 is still up for distribution. It was a commitment,” Salceda said.
No additional evacuations had been undertaken as of 5 p.m. Friday.
The PDCC said there were 156,000 persons (or 32,344 families) from over 90 affected Albay villages staying in different shelters as of Friday night. With a report from Joey A. Gabieta, Inquirer Visayas
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